Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 0.007114 0.008007 0.008971 0.010090 0.011354 0.012738 0.014369
2026-02-08 0.005685 0.006912 0.008345 0.010144 0.012347 0.014960 0.018303
2026-02-15 0.004812 0.006170 0.007842 0.010060 0.012932 0.016536 0.021417
2026-02-22 0.004315 0.005777 0.007660 0.010272 0.013812 0.018464 0.025074
2026-03-01 0.003740 0.005195 0.007141 0.009945 0.013900 0.019307 0.027309
2026-03-08 0.003323 0.004770 0.006772 0.009756 0.014116 0.020294 0.029781
2026-03-15 0.002958 0.004375 0.006394 0.009499 0.014185 0.021044 0.031938
2026-03-22 0.002809 0.004272 0.006419 0.009820 0.015111 0.023100 0.036203
2026-03-29 0.002647 0.004133 0.006371 0.010015 0.015850 0.024918 0.040245
2026-04-05 0.002510 0.004016 0.006343 0.010231 0.016627 0.026843 0.044613
2026-04-12 0.002317 0.003793 0.006128 0.010123 0.016864 0.027908 0.047641
2026-04-19 0.002166 0.003624 0.005983 0.010113 0.017252 0.029239 0.051216
2026-04-26 0.001997 0.003414 0.005757 0.009956 0.017388 0.030176 0.054228
2026-05-03 0.001882 0.003287 0.005660 0.010010 0.017895 0.031794 0.058608
2026-05-10 0.001756 0.003128 0.005495 0.009928 0.018145 0.032967 0.062263
2026-05-17 0.001687 0.003066 0.005493 0.010136 0.018937 0.035178 0.068062
2026-05-24 0.001545 0.002859 0.005217 0.009814 0.018709 0.035470 0.070169
2026-05-31 0.001436 0.002704 0.005021 0.009627 0.018719 0.036205 0.073201
2026-06-07 0.001327 0.002542 0.004801 0.009374 0.018575 0.036625 0.075622
2026-06-14 0.001300 0.002534 0.004870 0.009690 0.019586 0.039402 0.083164
2026-06-21 0.001258 0.002495 0.004878 0.009883 0.020359 0.041759 0.090025
2026-06-28 0.001222 0.002463 0.004895 0.010096 0.021189 0.044293 0.097497
2026-07-05 0.001153 0.002360 0.004764 0.009989 0.021335 0.045398 0.101901